Friday, February 6, 2009

Sunset on Authoritarianism


(West lake in Hangzhou at sunset)

China is the most interesting country I have ever lived in (I can only really claim to have lived in two countries, but it is also the most interesting country I have visited) For a relatively well off American like myself one day ZhongGuo fells like the freest country in the world; the bars close hours after after daylight arrives, and only because everyone has finally gone home, you can smoke anywhere, travel is cheap and easy, getting a job (for someone with chinese and English language skills) or starting a business takes minimum effort. The majority of people in the cities are incredibly open and polite, including the police.
Other times the facade of freedom falls apart in a matter of minutes. Your friend gets a phone call from the Bank of China, they want to speak with you and ask that you bring your passport, you wonder how they know your with her when they call. You stay with a host family in Tibet and the Army comes in at 1AM to kick you out of the SAR, it turns out that permit you ignored wasn't quite the formality you thought it was. Your friend gets deported and you don't; there is no explanation for the differing and arbitrary treatment.
You hear about the censored internet but a google search of Tienanmen Square yields a plethora of accurate information. The next day you mention Taiwan to your Chinese friend and it becomes clear that he thinks it is a provence just like ShanDong or SiChuan, to make this clear he wasn't like a Saudi who refuses to recognize the legitimacy of Israel, he actually did not know that there was a controversy over Taiwanese sovereignty.
I or any other person who lives in a city in China can live and work anywhere in the country, but people from rural villages are not afforded the same rights of free movement. Of course only a very small segment of the population gets too make any relevant political decisions. And dissenters often disappear and only occasionally turn up ever again.
Up until now the Chinese populace, especially in urban areas has tacitly accepted this regime. And with good reason, the Chinese government has held legitimacy over the past 30 years by promising economic growth and (very slowly) opening up to the rest of the world. This has helped to lift over 300 million people out of poverty and starvation. The short term gains from democracy did not outweigh the costs economic loss and personal harm. However, economic growth is quickly turning stagnant, and the rising middle class will not accept this rule with increasing unemployment, especially among college graduates. I'm told by people in China now that pro-democracy petitions are circulating among young urban professionals at a pace faster than the government can quietly deal with them. I put the odds at a new Tienanmen moment within 2 years at 1 to 3, these odds will only increase if growth does not pickup. The call for democracy is closing in on the Communist Party, and unless they take extraordinary action to stop it now, it will soon be too late. I hope they fail.